Petroleum has been the driver of human productive capacity for more than 100 years, helping humankind achieve great productivity... but we may now be reaching a point where world demand will soon be surpassing world supply. This is Peak Oil!
Oil has the highest energy leverage of any resource; it delivers about 80 times the energy needed to extract it. Most of the technology and products developed and produced in the 20th century were either powered or manufactured with oil.
However, many oil geologists now argue that the world is quickly reaching the point where total world consumption of oil will soon outstrip the production rate of oil world-wide.
Today, no one seriously disputes that the production of accessible petroleum reserves will max out sometime between now and the year 2020. The world will then face energy descent—an increasingly widening gap between oil production and demand - and energy transition - the emergence of potentially new forms of energy to replace or substitute for oil, such as shale gas and synthetic oil.
The size and growth of the energy gap will be exaggerated by continuing urban and industrial development in China and India. As low cost manufacturers with a combined population of 2.5 billion — including many middle class aspirants —China and India will compete fiercely with traditional petroleum consumers in Europe and North America.
Potential Peak Oil Impacts:
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Much higher cost of oil and all fuels
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Cars become a less affordable means of mass transportation
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Much greater need for pubic mass transportation
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Re-localization of agriculture / food production
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Re-localization of manufacturing
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Transformation and/or death of suburbs
Why is peak oil so central to the Resilient City idea?
Because oil and other fossil fuels both power our cities, and also figure heavily in producing the resources that build and run them. Construction, manufacturing, food production, transportation and many other services are oil-dependant.
So rising oil prices on the downward slope of the peak oil curve will have huge effects on urban and national economies. Learning how to live with less oil, while finding non-carbon replacements for the energy that it provides, and the products derived from it, will be the key challenge for cities worldwide in the 21st century.
Architects, engineers and urban planners will be called on to provide urban planning and building design strategies for successfully transitioning from carbon to post-carbon cities.
